This force projection suggests the US is no longer focused on containing Iran but rather compelling a final resolution of a long-running conflict. The US would coordinate strikes against the Iranian leadership, missile forces, air defences and remaining nuclear infrastructure, seeking to cripple the regime. This would probably trigger Iranian regional escalation ranging from attacks on US bases, shipping lanes and Israeli cities, and maybe even some proxy mobilisation across the Gulf. Under combined external pressure and internal unrest, the regime fractures, producing not liberal transition but a power vacuum. Whether through forced compromise, limited war or regime collapse, none of the likely paths ahead point toward immediate stability or democratic transition.

Source: The North Africa Journal February 04, 2026 01:31 UTC